The Natural Gas Market Site

Historical Analysis

Compiled January 22, 2001

I compiled the information below from my own gas bills over the past five years. Let me begin by saying that this data is from my own bills and the trend conclusions that I draw may not be true for the general case.

The data is interesting in that it makes clear some of the "benefits" that deregulation has brought us. Interestingly, the deregulated part of the business, the actual gas commodity, has remained pretty much constant with deregulation (up until just recently). In my case I locked in a fixed rate in February, 1999, then again in February, 2000, so my gas price hasn't gone up much. However, gas prices are going up significantly now, so those on variable plans are paying more. In February, 2001, my rate will go up as well...

The portion of the gas business that remains regulated has gotten considerably more expensive for the consumer. On average we are now paying about twice as much as we did prior to deregulation for the same amount of gas even though the gas itself has not gotten more expensive. Where is the difference going? Most of it is going to Atlanta Gas Light, but some small portion is going to the marketers in the form of "customer service fees."

The chart highlights the increase in AGL's base charges. Over the past four years the price of gas itself has changed very little. However, the base or "fixed" costs have gone up.

Each summer we get a peak in the total cost line since the fixed costs drive up the total cost per therm. Compared to the first two summers, the past three summers (post-deregulation) have had very high fixed costs.

Notice the slight bump in average total cost per therm between post-deregulation AGL and Shell (table below). This is due to Shell raising "customer service fees" from the AGL standard of $1.57 to the current $4.95 per month. In addition, AGL has also tacked on about $1.00 to it's "base charges" in the past year or so.

It seems that everyone is complaining about the high price of gas lately, but the real hit to consumers has been in increasing fixed costs, most of which are imposed by AGL.

DDDC=1.71

Date	Total Bill	Therms	Gas	Base Chg	Total Cost per Therm	Gas Cost per Therm	Average Total Cost per Therm	Average Gas Cost per Therm
Atlanta Gas Light (pre-deregulation)
Jan, 1996	133.92	285.50	93.56	Unknown	0.47	0.33	0.78	0.42
Feb, 1996	113.06	216.70	76.69	Unknown	0.52	0.35
Mar, 1996	83.36	166.00	55.26	Unknown	0.50	0.33
Apr, 1996	49.17	58.60	29.15	Unknown	0.84	0.50
May, 1996	37.60	39.00	20.05	Unknown	0.96	0.51
Jun, 1996	32.07	31.80	15.76	Unknown	1.01	0.50
Jul, 1996	30.05	35.90	13.03	Unknown	0.84	0.36
Aug, 1996	28.39	32.80	11.94	Unknown	0.87	0.36
Sep, 1996	25.73	27.60	10.06	Unknown	0.93	0.36
Oct, 1996	34.26	43.10	15.38	Unknown	0.79	0.36
Nov, 1996	83.79	160.50	54.43	Unknown	0.52	0.34
Dec, 1996	106.20	169.80	71.27	Unknown	0.63	0.42
Jan, 1997	126.13	204.80	88.74	Unknown	0.62	0.43
Feb, 1997	99.84	151.80	65.14	Unknown	0.66	0.43
Mar, 1997	50.03	56.40	27.15	Unknown	0.89	0.48
Apr, 1997	35.94	52.20	17.04	Unknown	0.69	0.33
May, 1997	35.91	36.20	18.82	Unknown	0.99	0.52
Jun, 1997	35.49	33.90	18.94	Unknown	1.05	0.56
Jul, 1997	31.36	31.90	15.29	Unknown	0.98	0.48
Aug, 1997	31.20	31.70	15.20	Unknown	0.98	0.48
Sep, 1997	27.97	30.80	12.11	Unknown	0.91	0.39
Oct, 1997	45.47	66.80	25.14	Unknown	0.68	0.38
Nov, 1997	90.40	168.10	63.41	Unknown	0.54	0.38
Dec, 1997	117.93	219.60	83.95	Unknown	0.54	0.38
Jan, 1998	92.85	153.90	61.38	Unknown	0.60	0.40
Feb, 1998	84.25	144.40	55.41	Unknown	0.58	0.38
Mar, 1998	64.64	117.80	41.30	Unknown	0.55	0.35
Apr, 1998	40.43	46.20	22.87	Unknown	0.88	0.50
May, 1998	36.31	35.90	20.25	Unknown	1.01	0.56
Jun, 1998	23.57	18.60	10.00	9.68	1.27	0.54
Atlanta Gas Light (post-deregulation)
Jul, 1998	32.91	15.50	7.54	24.93	2.12	0.49	1.41	0.51
Aug, 1998	30.30	14.40	6.46	23.84	2.10	0.45
Sep, 1998	29.16	12.40	5.32	23.84	2.35	0.43
Oct, 1998	38.46	22.60	13.87	24.59	1.70	0.61
Nov, 1998	81.44	75.60	56.86	24.58	1.08	0.75
Dec, 1998	111.22	165.10	86.53	24.69	0.67	0.52
Jan, 1999	89.88	137.00	65.19	24.69	0.66	0.48
Feb, 1999	66.82	110.13	42.95	22.30	0.61	0.39
Shell Energy (DDDC=1.71)
Mar, 1999	65.10	105.77	41.25	23.85	0.62	0.39	1.53	0.42
Apr, 1999	37.52	35.16	13.71	23.81	1.07	0.39
May, 1999	30.19	16.48	6.43	23.76	1.83	0.39
Jun, 1999	24.17	1.03	0.40	23.77	23.47	0.39
Jul, 1999	29.80	15.45	6.03	23.77	1.93	0.39
Aug, 1999	29.74	15.39	6.00	23.74	1.93	0.39
Sep, 1999	30.52	13.27	5.18	25.34	2.30	0.39
Oct, 1999	31.08	14.32	5.59	25.49	2.17	0.39
Nov, 1999	37.84	31.68	12.36	25.48	1.19	0.39
Dec, 1999	57.42	81.92	31.95	25.47	0.70	0.39
Jan, 2000	87.59	159.59	62.24	25.35	0.55	0.39
Feb, 2001	113.74	196.42	88.39	25.35	0.58	0.45
Mar, 2000	80.42	120.83	54.37	26.05	0.67	0.45
Apr, 2000	52.75	59.33	26.70	26.05	0.89	0.45
May, 2000	45.82	43.95	19.78	26.04	1.04	0.45
Jun, 2000	33.41	16.37	7.37	26.04	2.04	0.45
Jul, 2000	33.06	15.32	6.89	26.17	2.16	0.45
Aug, 2000	33.38	14.34	6.45	26.93	2.33	0.45
Sep, 2000	32.93	13.33	5.99	26.94	2.47	0.45
Oct, 2000	33.83	13.33	5.99	27.84	2.54	0.45
Nov, 2000	40.90	26.70	12.02	28.88	1.53	0.45

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